Bracket Breakdown IV- Bring on the games, as well as the Beast of the East.

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Dave Preston is an AP Top 25 voter. Read his latest ballot here:

https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/dave-preston/2023/week-20

The NCAA Tournament in earnest begins Thursday with Michigan State facing Mississippi State on CBS at 12:15 p.m. (I’m taking MSU). Sixteen games on back to back days with the final buzzer sounding after midnight both evenings. Brace yourself for a diet of blowouts and upsets, prepare to become familiar with some kids you’ve never heard of before, and get ready for “that guy” at the office who tells you how his picks are doing Thursday afternoon (and if you are that guy, dial it down until the end of the first weekend before letting us know).

The East not only sports the defending national champ and overall No. 1 seed UConn, but there are ten other conference tournament winners (most of any region) in this quadrant of the bracket. This group includes everybody from first-time participant Stetson (the Hatters draw the Huskies in the First Round) to feels-like-forever Duquesne (the Dukes last danced in 1977, when there were 32 teams and before seeding) while boasting SEC champ Auburn, Big Ten titlist Illinois, and Big 12 winner Iowa State. The Huskies’ road back to the Final Four is far from a cakewalk.

Bold: last year I went on record liking the Drake. Then I was loving the Drake when the Bulldogs took a 55-47 second half lead over Miami in the First Round (classic 12-5 upset in play here). I wound up hating the Drake after the Hurricanes finished the game on a 16-1 run over the final 5:40 of regulation on their way to the Final Four. One year later, I’m loving the Drake again after they rolled through the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. They also face a Washington State team that’s fading (three losses in six games) and boast a dynamic guard in Tucker DeVries who leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals while ranking second in rebounding and blocked shots. LOVING THE DRAKE! At least for one round.

Fold: San Diego State shocked the world on its way to the Final Four last March. This year as the hunted they found their way into the Top 25 only to fade after February’s end (2-3 in March). It’s tough to get to consecutive Final Fours-or even Sweet Sixteens-and just like the Aztecs got some fortunate bounces against Charleston, Creighton, and FAU last year I don’t see them getting those bounces this March.

Gold: UConn is on a mission to become the first repeat NCAA champ since Florida in 2007, and those Gators are the last defending champs to advance past the Regional Semifinals. But this year’s mix has been playing in a manner that would make the Huskies’ previous champs (1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, and 2023) proud. Tristen Newton has gone from contributing supporting player to the lead dog, pacing the team in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding. They’ve posted seven and 14-game winning streaks already this season and have won seven straight entering the NCAA Tournament. I see a 13-game winning streak after all is over and a repeat for this beast of the Big East.

Presented by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bracket Breakdown II- Cavaliers aren’t the only team chasing ghosts of March in Midwest

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Dave Preston is an AP Top 25 voter. Read his latest ballot here:

https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/pollster/dave-preston/2023/week-20

Get ready for six days of noticing truTV! Yes, the channel that brought you “Hairjacked!” get its annual “where is that channel?” and “who watches these shows?” treatment while the men’s tournament begins in Dayton with a pair of doubleheaders.

Tuesday’s nightcap features Virginia (23-10, 13-7 ACC), a school that many had ticketed to the NIT after their last-minute collapse in regulation (they led 58-52 with 52 seconds left, missing a pair of what would have been game-sealing free throws) and defeat in overtime to an NC State team playing its fourth game in four nights. That left the room in Charlottesville a little on edge Sunday evening. “Going into the Selection Show, this year was a little different (Cavaliers were a No. 4 seed in 2023). We were on the bubble, we weren’t sure we were going to be here,” guard/forward Isaac McKneely said. “It was a little nerve-wracking, but just to see our name come up it was a blessing. I know we’re all excited to be here. I know we’re all excited to hopefully make a run.” UVa is 12 months removed from losing in heartbreaking fashion to Furman and hasn’t won a tournament game since they captured the 2019 National Championship. They draw Colorado State (24-10, 10-8 Mountain West), who got off to a 13-1 start (lone loss came to Saint Mary’s) and was ranked as high as No. 13 on January 1st. The Rams are led by Isaiah Stephens (17 points and a MWC-best seven assists per game), who’ll give Reese Beekman all he can handle in a duel of dynamic point guards. “He’s one of the best passers I’ve seen,” Coach Tony Bennett said. “His composure, the way they use him whether it’s ball screens or triple-handoffs or little actions and then they’re cutting the other guys. Their physicality, just their spacing and cutting. They score in different ways–it’s impressive.” Playing in Dayton is not a death sentence: in 11 of the 12 years since that city has hosted the First Four one of the at-large schools has gone on to win at least one game in the main bracket (VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021 both advancing to the Final Four). Will the Cavaliers enjoy a reprieve or another early March exit? Tuesday at 9:10 p.m. we’ll find that out. On truTV, no less.

The remainder of the Midwest Region also carries plenty of March baggage: No. 1 seed Purdue joined Virginia in infamy by losing to a No. 16 seed last year and hasn’t reached the Final Four since 1980, while No. 2 Tennessee has never been to a Final Four despite 25 appearances. By the way, the Volunteers draw 2022 darling St. Peter’s in the First Round. No. 3 Creighton came within a whisker of making their first Final Four last March. On the other end of the spectrum you have blueblood Kansas (four National Championships), nouveau riche Gonzaga (25 straight NCAA appearances), and original champ Oregon (Ducks won the 1939 tournament).

Midwest “Bold” (which team in the bracket wins a game or two beyond their seeding), “Fold” (which school will underperform its seeding), and “Gold” (who goes to Glendale, AZ and the Final Four) picks:

Bold: McNeese won 30 games under first-year coach Will Wade, who had previously led VCU and LSU to the Big Dance (I know, no initials involved in this job). The Cowboys rank third nationally in turnover margin and defensive field goal percentage allowed, and play a Gonzaga team that got a No. 5 seed despite being on the bubble as recently as early February. Giddy up.

Fold: Kansas was ranked No. 1 in the preseason but has fallen on hard times as of late, losing four of its last five (9-9 over its last 18 games). Their 20-point loss to Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament saw the Jayhawks try to play without center Hunter Dickinson (dislocated shoulder) and Kevin McCullar (bone bruise in the knee). The duo account for 48% of the team’s scoring and 47% of the squad’s rebounding. Both are question marks for their First Round game with Samford. Both are needed to produce if this team is to return to the Sweet Sixteen.

Gold: Purdue’s loss to Farleigh Dickinson last March was just the tip of the iceberg regarding their Big Dance demons. The storied program (11th all-time with 1,075 wins after the 2022-23 season) is 0-3 in Regional Finals games since 1980 and 3-10 in Sweet Sixteen games in that span, and then there’s the recent stretch of three straight seasons losing to a double-digit seed. But Coach Matt Painter brought the band back this past winter and while Zach Edey (24 points and 12 rebounds per game) responded with another National Player of the Year performance, it’s the elevated play of guard Braden Smith (12 points, six rebounds, and seven rebounds per game) who’s a year wiser as a sophomore that has one confident the Boilermakers finally break through.

Bracket Breakdown 2- First Four Failings, plus Howard and VCU Go West!

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The tournament tips off tonight! Sort of. From 1985 to 2000 the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament was a perfect bracket of 64 teams: four regions of 16 schools (or eight sub-regionals of eight teams apiece) playing two games on three consecutive weekends in pursuit of a national championship. There was balance between automatic qualifiers and at-large schools and the buildup from Sunday night through Thursday at noon delivered anticipation and storylines like nothing else while letting everybody (teams, fans, media) ample time to get to the eight sites across the country. Unfortunately the split in the Western Athletic Conference (a 16-team league that expanded beyond its abilities to govern) created the Mountain West Conference and another automatic bid that the large schools didn’t want to take away from the at-large pool. Solution: add another game! For a while there was an extra “Opening Round” game involving the lowest-rated automatic qualifiers and then a second one, like a cancerous appendix.

Ten years later the bright minds at the NCAA turned the scaffolding into something more permanent titled “The First Four” and turned Dayton into the appetizer for the Big Dance. While I’m happy to see more schools, more athletes, and more fans (along with more games) involved in March Madness and while Dayton puts on a great event, I still wish they’d have the extra schools head straight to the First and Second Round sites to be a part of the main bracket from the get-go. Especially the kids who might be making their only NCAA Tournament appearance. Let them share the same stage as the bluebloods even if for only a day or two. It’s also easier on travel for everybody.

Howard (22-12, 11-3 MEAC) is dancing like it’s 1992! The Bison’s 65-64 win over Norfolk State in the MEAC Championship Game Saturday punched its first ticket to the NCAA Tournament since the Bush 41 administration-or since current Coach Kenny Blakeney was a freshman playing for eventual National Champion Duke. And just like 1992, the Bison are a No. 16 seed and will battle Kansas in a Midwestern city beginning with D (subbing 1992’s Dayton for 2023’s Des Moines). I’m happy they’re in the main bracket (as opposed to the First Four) but recognize the incredible task ahead: No. 16 seeds have beaten a top seed just once (UMBC over Virginia in 2018) since the field was expanded to 64 schools in 1985. But just like David had a slingshot in his arsenal when he beat Goliath, the Bison have made 37.7% of their three-pointers (25th best in Division I) and will likely need to be firing from long-range to keep pace with the defending national champs.

VCU (27-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10) makes the tournament for the 13tth time this century, and they’ve done so under five different coaches. In fact in order to advance to this year’s field the Rams had to defeat Dayton and former VCU Coach Anthony Grant (2006-08). They’re best known for the 2011 run from the First Four (as an at-large team) to the Final Four under then-coach Shaka Smart. Coach Mike Rhoades employs a similar style to the havoc that tore through the bracket that year, ranking 24th nationally in scoring defense (62.9 points allowed per game). Their not-so-secret weapon this month? Senior sharp-shooter David Shriver, who’s hitting 53% from three-point range in March. VCU draws No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s, a team that has lost just three times since December 18: twice to West Coast Conference Champ and perennial power Gonzaga and once in overtime at Loyola Marymount.

Checking out the rest of the West Regional, there’s plenty of star-power from the previously mentioned top seed Kansas to UCLA and Gonzaga. I’ve also seen more teams in this region in person (VCU, Illinois, UConn, Northwestern) than any other of the brackets, which will give me a false sense of security when breaking the West down:

Bold-

Beware the schools that play in the First Four: in the 11 years of the Dayton Games one of the at large teams has advanced to the Round of 32 and five teams have gotten to the second weekend. Nevada (22-10) is the record-tying fifth school Coach Steve Alford has guided to the NCAA Tournament, but it’s Bobby Hurley whose Arizona State (22-12) Sun Devils have successfully punched above their class twice in the last couple of weeks with upset wins at top-ten Arizona and USC on a neutral floor. Hurley’s also rather familiar with the First Four as this is the third time in six years he’s taken the Sun Devils to Dayton (does he get points at the hotel by now?). Look for ASU to cause some problems.

Fold-

Northwestern (21-11) won a school-record 12 Big Ten games this winter and is back in the Big Dance for the second time in school history, while guard Boo Buie has game to match his name. But the Wildcats have lost four of five and have been somewhat offensively challenged (311th in scoring, 343rd in shooting, 294th from three-point range) this winter. And while defense has been their calling card, they’re not that much better on that side of the floor than Boise State, who also boast multiple players who can stick the three.

Gold-

One is tempted to take Kansas as the defending champs have been an elite team for the entire season, but more often than not the weight of the crown proves to be too much in March (Duke is the only defending champ since 2014 to reach the second weekend). I’ve got the Jayhawks losing to UConn, a team that was ranked as high as No. 2 in December. Coach Danny Hurley’s team led the Big East in scoring defense while boasting two of the top three scorers in forward Adama Sonogo and guard Jordan Hawkins. The Huskies have also lost four games by a combined total of nine points since January 15. One feels they’ll string together four wins over the next two weeks.

Bracket Breakdown 1- The field is announced as Maryland and Virginia go South…

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Break out the brackets and pens! And fire up the nachos and wings (preferably an 8-to-4 drumstick to flat ratio)! Selection Sunday has passed meaning we are on the clock to get our picks in for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Back in the field after a year’s absence is Maryland. The Terrapins get the No. 8 seed in the South Region and a First Round date with West Virginia. “This time of year is amazing for college basketball, it’s also heartbreaking for the teams that didn’t get in,” Coach Kevin Willard said. “I think you have to enjoy that aspect of hearing your name called. It was kind of nice being the third team called, it was kind of anti-climactic, actually.” Major props to Willard in putting together a roster over the spring and summer that would come together and win 11 Big Ten games while posting a record of 21-12. “These kids bought into our culture, they bought into our style,” Willard said. “I’ve said it all along: they’ve been one of the best teams to coach because they have a great attitude and they work hard.”

As mentioned the Terrapins face West Virginia (19-14, 7-11 Big 12) and they tip off Thursday’s action at 12:15 p.m. in Birmingham, AL. Should they beat the Mountaineers they’d likely face overall No. 1 seed Alabama, whose campus happens to be located in the same state as Birmingham. The road to the tournament isn’t easy, and neither is the road in the tournament.

Virginia (25-7, 15-5 ACC) is back after a year’s absence as well, earning the No. 4 seed in the South and a First Round game with Furman (27-7, 15-3 Southern) who’s dealing with a little bit longer of an NCAA drought: try 43 years! The Paladins last made the field in 1980 that was the tail-end of a ten-year stretch where they made the tournament six times. The Cavaliers are coming off of a 59-49 loss to Duke in the ACC Championship Game that underscored an offense (33% shooting and 4-17 from three) that’s had issues all season putting points on the board. UVa faces Furman at 12:40 p.m. Thursday in Orlando, with the winner playing San Diego State or the College of Charleston Saturday.

The South Regional provides plenty of possibilities with streaky Creighton (the 21-12 Bluejays had a six game losing streak and an eight game winning streak this season), fading Baylor (the 22-10 Bears enter the tournament having dropped four of six), plus Pac-12 Tournament champ Arizona (28-6). Play technically begins Tuesday night in Dayton with Southeast Missouri State (19-16) facing Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10) with the winner being fed to-I mean playing-No. 1 seed Alabama.

Instead of picking every single game in this space (don’t worry complete picks will be tweeted @davpresto and @WTOP), we’ll present our Bold (which team wins a game or two beyond its seeding), Fold (who disappoints), and Gold (who goes to New Orleans and the Final Four) picks.

Bold-

It’s easy to get behind the College of Charleston. I’ve seen them play in person during the CAA Tournament and have even posed for pictures with Clyde the Cougar mascot (last year I got to wave the flag too). But the 31-win team is also a three-point shooting machine (10th in makes and 2nd in attempts in all of Division I). They shoot threes to get hot, and then they shoot threes to stay hot. They also play six hours down the road in Orlando while their First Round foe San Diego State has to fly across three time zones (the 12:10 p.m. PDT start isn’t deadly, but far from ideal for the Aztecs). If they get to the Second Round they’ll likely face an offensively challenged Virginia team.

Fold-

Arizona won the Pac-12 Tournament and has doesn’t have to travel far to Sacramento for the first weekend. But defense is what needs to travel in March and the Wildcats rank 224th nationally in scoring defense (71.5 points per game). While Princeton won’t necessarily push the Cats to the limit, the Second Round brings either Missouri (29th in scoring) or Utah State (40th).

Gold-

Alabama uses as its mascot an elephant and it’s fitting this March because the elephant in the room is the status of the Crimson Tide’s best player Brandon Miller and being linked if even in a minor way to a murder this winter. But the 6-foot-9 freshman is having a great season and he’s helped the Tide rank 10th in the nation in scoring and eighth in rebounding margin. They also begin the tournament in Birmingham (from which I understand is in the state of Alabama) and tips off their tournament run against a team that’s just flown in from Dayton. While it’s difficult to see questions surrounding Miller going away, it’s also tough to see the Crimson Tide not reaching Louisville for the Regional-or Houston for the Final Four.

On the First Day of Madness: Patriot League Primer…

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Welcome to March and the Madness that comes with it! Hold on–can I actually say “March and the Madness”? Because I know “March Madness” is trademarked by the NCAA, just like the terms “Final Four”, “Big Dance”, and who knows what else (I’m looking forward to the day where “a” and “the” become NCAA or NFL intellectual properties). But this isn’t a commercial, so I think I can get away with it…I hope.

The end of February saw the first team flushed: Central Connecticut beat Fairleigh Dickinson 67-66 in the Opening Round of the Northeast Conference Tournament Monday night. Actually, the Knights join Harvard, Brown, Dartmouth, and Columbia in the land of the eliminated because the Ivy League allows only four schools into its conference tournament (make your exclusivity comments here). And as we’re talking about membership, James Madison’s impending move to the Sun Belt Conference has caused the CAA to deem the 15-14 Dukes ineligible for their conference tournament.  For those curious, 15-14 in the CAA isn’t going to get you an at-large berth.  As long as we’re discussing ineligibility, Oklahoma State is out for 2022 due to NCAA violations. And eight schools began the 2021-22 season knowing they wouldn’t be dancing because they’re in the “transition period” after transferring into Division I: Bellarmine, Cal Baptist, Dixie State, Merrimack, North Alabama, St. Thomas, Tarleton State, and UC San Diego. So 343 of the 358 schools in Division I are still alive as we enter men’s college basketball’s “Closing Month”.

Tonight’s Game:

American at Holy Cross, Patriot League First Round, 7 p.m. The Eagles (9-21, 5-13 PL) swept the regular season series and enter the postseason coming off a ten point win against Loyola (MD) while the Crusaders (9-21, 7-11) have dropped three straight.

Eagle who’s soared: Stacy Beckton Jr. was voted Third Team All-Conference and Elijah Stephens made the All-Rookie Team, but sophomore Colin Smalls scored 16 and 19 points against Holy Cross this winter.

Crusader to contain: six foot six forward Gerrale Gates averages 16 points and 9 rebounds and posted nine double-doubles during conference play.

Recent history: AU last won a Patriot League Tournament game in 2016, the same year that Holy Cross advanced to the NCAA Tournament despite a ninth place regular season finish.