Presto’s Picks: Who Needs a Preseason?

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Sport’s most important regular season kicks off this weekend as the tradition of college football is like none other–hold on, the season actually began last weekend?  With a game in Sydney, Australia?  In a sport where shifting criteria used by a 12-member committee determines a 4-team playoff field and a conference doesn’t even need to have divisions to have a Championship Game (thank you, Big 12), it almost makes sense.  In a world where tradition is trumpeted yet leagues change membership like shirts and schools have 75 different uniform combinations, college football is the fickle mistress that dazzles us one moment while confounding us the next.  She knows we’ll be back–and we are once again.  Special thanks to #2 Ohio State for rallying past Indiana Thursday–you saved me from having to completely rewrite my opening thoughts to the season.  And good luck next week against 7th ranked Oklahoma.

Alma Mater Update- Excuse me?  The Orange are playing a Friday night game?  Didn’t we leave the Big East to avoid garbage like this?  SU entertains Central Connecticut State as Dino Babers begins his second season resurrecting the once-proud program.  Hopefully the defense will be better than the one that surrendered 76 points to Pitt (the Panthers men’s basketball team averaged 73 points in two games against the 2-3 zone).  The offense has a heralded quarterback in true freshman Tommy DeVito, who depending on your age and influences either reminds you of “Goodfellas”, or “Jersey Boys”.  Hopefully he’s redshirted–let’s hang on to the eligibilty he’s got.  If he isn’t redshirted, brace yourself for Joe Pesci and Four Seasons references early and often this fall.

Friday-

Navy at Florida Atlantic, 8 p.m., WFED 1500 am and ESPNU.  In our preseason preview I marveled at how coach Ken Niumatalolo had been the head man for nine seasons while the rest of the AAC coaches had a combined eight years in their current jobs.  They’ve got nothing on Lane Kiffin, who’s had five different gigs in the last ten years.  Kiffin was actually coach in the NFL at Oakland when Niumatalolo began his tenure in Annapolis.  After being fired by the Raiders, Kiffin has held top jobs at Tennessee and USC while also serving as Alabama’s offensive coordinator.  Exactly how long do the Owls expect him to stick around?  Zach Abey takes over the reins…but the junior is by no means a first-year starter after seeing action against Army and the Mids’ bowl game last December.  Midshipmen begin with a bang, 38-21.

 

Saturday-

Maryland at #23 Texas, 12 p.m., FS1.   After taking most of summer workouts to determine who would start at quarterback (sophomore Tyrrell Pigrome gets the nod), the Terps tangle with a Longhorns team that’s coming off three straight losing seasons for the first time since 1938.  Texas also returns ten starters on defense…and if there’s one thing Maryland did not do well in 2016 it was protect the passer:  their 49 sacks allowed were the most in the Big Ten.  Conventional wisdom is if somebody’s going to steal a win in Austin it’s while coach Tom Herman and staff are still installing their program as well as weeding out non-contributors.  Can Herman translate what he did with Houston to sophomore QB Shane Buechelle (60% passer with 21 touchdowns in 2016) against a defense that was near the bottom of the Big Ten in turnovers and total defense?  These two teams last met in the 1978 Sun Bowl in a game where the Longhorns won 42-0 behind three guys named Johnny Jones:  they were known by the monikers Lam, Ham and Jam.  Oh, the good ole days.  Terrapins tumble, 34-17.

Virginia vs William & Mary, 3:30 p.m., ACC Network.  Something about facing in-state schools always makes the Cavalier faithful uncomfortable:  they opened last year with a loss to Richmond and almost fell to William & Mary in 2015.  UVa may have caught a break this year though, as the Tribe will be starting a new quarterback and runningback.  The good news for the Cavaliers?  They return eight starters on defense. The bad news?  That defense had issues stopping the run (11^th in the ACC) and pass (12^th in yards, 14^th in efficiency) in 2016.  The best news is that there is stability at the quarterback position for the first time in eons.  Kurt Benkert played well in stretches last fall, and with runningbacks Taquan Mizzell and Albert Reid both graduating he’ll be leaned on a little more in his second season as a starter.  Back for another fun fall are my tailgating pals, Kippy & Buffy.  After their tour of Virginia wineries exclusively in 2016 resulted in a 2-10 campaign, they’re branching out this fall…and beginning with Conundrum White.  This “blend of Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc, Semillon, Muscat Canelli and Viognier lures you in with scents of apricot, pear and honeysuckle–and if you’re paying attention, orange and lemon meringue pie.”  Oh, we’re most definitely paying attention as we enjoy a glass with pepper jack cheese on Ritz crackers.  Cavaliers come through, 31-20.

 

Sunday-

#21 Virginia Tech vs #22 West Virginia (at FedEx Field), 7:30 p.m, ABC.  Former regional and conference rivals reunite:  the two schools met 51 times between 1912 and 2005…and between them won 10 Big East conference titles from 1993-2011.  Both teams will feature new quarterbacks—but while the Hokies are starting redshirt freshman Josh Jackson the Mountaineers have ex-Florida starter Will Grier.  The junior had the Gators cruising to a 6-0 start in 2015 when he was suspended for PED use.  The running of Justin Crawford (7.3 yards per carry last year) will make Grier’s transition easier.  Last year Justin Fuente rolled the dice correctly with transfer Jerod Evans last year-but that was with a veteran receiving corps at Evans’ disposal.  Jackson faces an unorthodox defense (WVU runs a 3-3-5), but one that is loaded with inexperience (eight new starters, including the entire defensive line).  Even though the Hokies own the Northern Virginia fan base (sorry, Kippy & Buffy), they don’t fare well in Landover:  winless in three games against USC (understood), Boise State (makes sense) and Cincinnati (what?).  Hokies come up short, 31-24. 

 

Richmond falls at Sam Houston State, James Madison beats East Carolina, Towson tops Morgan State, Howard loses at UNLV.

Last Year:  85-35.

College Football Corner- Country Roads Converging…

Blacksburg and Charlottesville.  Two opposite sides of the college football coin in the Commonwealth.  Virginia Tech is coming off of the school’s ninth 10-win season since it joined the ACC and a league-best sixth division title, while Virginia suffered through its second 10-loss season in four years and has finished higher than third just twice since divisional play began.  And then there’s the thing about how the Cavaliers haven’t beaten the Hokies since their poor country cousin crashed the Atlantic Coast Conference party in 2004.

The contrast between the two programs also goes against recent form:  Virginia returns stability at quarterback while Virginia Tech has question marks surrounding the position this fall.  Yes, you read it here first.  The Cavaliers plan to start the same QB two straight seasons for just the second time in 13 years.  Kurt Benkert threw for 2,552 yards and 21 touchdowns (second-most all-time in school history behind Matt Schaub’s 28 in 2002). The transfer from East Carolina certainly has the arm to compete in the ACC, but coach Bronco Mendenhall says, “(he has) to use the arm that he has but also make the good decisions and not think he has to throw the ball every single play.  Sometimes a scramble and a slide or just throwing the ball away is effective.”  Virginia Tech will start a redshirt freshman in Josh Jackson…who sat and learned last year watching transfer Jerod Evans tear up the ACC.  Coach Justin Fuente used three criteria to determine his quarterback competition: “how many times were you executing what we asked you to do on a consistent basis, to see them protect and value the football, and the third was a little bit of a feel thing-a little bit harder to measure.”  Plan B and C at the position are a pair of players who have yet to take a snap as a Hokie:  junior college transfer A.J. Bush and true freshman Hendon Hooker.

The contrast continues on the defensive side of the ball, where the Hokies look to build off last year’s strong showing (3rd in the ACC against the pass and 4th overall) while the Cavaliers look to plug holes in a unit that allowed the 3rd most points in the conference.  Coach Mendenhall feels last year’s defensive shortcomings were created by inexperience and unfamiliarity with the scheme installed: “I hope that we’re not nearly as volatile.  Usually inexperience leads to volatility–you’ll play a stretch where it looks like good football and then there’ll be some miscues and balls go over your head.”  UVa’s top player on defense remains safety Quin Blanding, who led the team in tackles last fall.  Tech also returns its leading tackler in linebacker Andrew Motuapuaka and returns six other starters, but coach Fuente knows the key will be how well his backups step up:  “the days of only playing defense with 11 guys are just over.  Offenses run too many plays with too many personnel groups–you’ve got to create depth.”

The two teams kick off the 2017 season in contrasting fashion:  Virginia Tech begins the year with a bang by facing #22 West Virginia at Fed Ex Field.  They previously played at the Redskins’ home field in 2004, 2010 and 2012. “There are a lot of Hokie fans up there,” Fuente says, “I think it’s a neat venue for us to play in and we have a quality opponent.  I know it’s given us something to work towards.”  A trip to East Carolina (the Pirates have given the Hokies fits over the last decade) also awaits before they start the ACC slate by visiting defending National Champion Clemson.  Tech also visits preseason Coastal Division favorite Miami.  Virginia begins its year with three straight home games- potentially providing the program momentum entering play against a league that enjoyed a stellar 2016.  “The numbers say a year ago that the ACC was the best conference- by national champion, postseason record and crossover record with other conferences,” Mendenhall adds, “after being in the league one year, I think it’s very strong top to bottom.”  Florida State and Clemson are in the preseason top 5, while Louisville and Miami start the year in the top 20.

The two contrasting Commonwealth roads converge the day after Thanksgiving when Virginia entertains Virginia Tech at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville.

 

Hokie Penthouse– how do you top last year’s 10-4 season?  By winning the ACC this year!  While they lose to Clemson in September, they do run the rest of the conference table and upset Florida State in the Championship Game.  While they might not make the playoff, Virginia Tech is in the conversation.

Hokie Outhouse– an opening night loss to West Virginia at Fed Ex Field sets the tone for a stumbling September that includes a defeat at home to Clemson.  Josh Jackson is no Jerod Evans…and the offense takes its lumps in losses to North Carolina and Miami to fall from Coastal Contention before falling to—gulp!—Virginia.  At least they don’t lose in Blacksburg.

Cavalier Penthouse– a 3-0 start gets everyone a little too excited…and Boise State bursts the bubble to end September.  But Kurt Benkert wins a game or two on his own and the defense isn’t completely dismal.  A bowl bid is secured…and then UVa goes out and beats the Hokies the day after Thanksgiving.  Plenty to be thankful for this year…

Cavalier Outhouse– the offense misses Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell more than they thought and the defense still has issues.  Losses to Indiana and Boise State temper enthusiasm…before the November nightmare of Georgia Tech, Louisville and Miami bury slim postseason hopes.  A rout at home to Virginia Tech remains the cherry on the turkey once again.

College Football Corner-The Cavaliers’ QB Carousel Continues…

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Who the heck is Kurt Benkert?  Frankly, the name sounds made up to me.  But he’s the starting quarterback at Virginia.  The Cavaliers under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall go with the East Carolina transfer at QB, and even though this is a different coaching regime it almost makes sense.  If there was one consistent theme during former coach Mike London’s tenure, it was inconsistent quarterback play (usually followed by the deposed QB transferring out of Charlottesville).  So just as Michael Rocco begat Phillip Sims who begat David Watford who begat Greyson Lambert who begat Matt Johns,  Johns now gives way to the former Pirate.  Truth be told, the quarterback carousel in actually dates back to the Al Groh days as this will be the 11th different starter in 12 season openers.

Benkert actually won the East Carolina starting job in 2015 before a knee injury ended his season…after throwing 10 passes the season before.  New coach Bronco Mendenhall told the Washington Post, “Kurt has been the one that has consistently — and can continue to be — consistent in terms of moving our team forward regardless the type and caliber of opponent we play. He’s a good decision-maker with a strong arm, and he has natural leadership skills.” Benkert will have weapons at his disposal–beginning with runningback Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell, who led the Cavaliers in rushing and receiving last fall.  Former Maryland runningback Albert Reid averaged 5.5 yards per carry while getting limited work (only one game of 10 carries or more).  Olamide Zaccheaus was equally effective last year as a runner (7.9 yards per carry) and receiver (his 50-yard TD catch helped UVa beat Duke).  It’ll be interesting to see how he’ll be employed this fall.

Defensively last year’s unit ranked 96th in points allowed and had problems getting to the passer.  Switching to the 3-4 may not only be Mendenhall’s preference, but it works with a defensive line that returns no starters.  The fact that linebacker Micah Kiser led the ACC in tackles last year is encouraging;  the junior was also the team’s best pass rusher (7.5 sacks) and will be expected to bear the build on last year’s breakthrough season.  The fact that free safety Quin Blanding was second in the league in stops is not encouraging–because if a defensive back is making that many tackles it means the other team has been able to consistently get by the first two layers of defense.

This year’s schedule is the one that former coach Mike London wishes he had the last few years.  Yes, they swap out ranked Pac-12 foes by visiting #24 Oregon instead of traveling to #13 UCLA.  And they exchange pesky William & Mary from the CAA for pesky Richmond.  But Boise State and Notre Dame have been replaced by the likes of UConn and Central Michigan.  The  Cavaliers still play in the Coastal Division (in other words, the non-Clemson/Florida State half of the league) and have ACC crossover games with Wake Forest (winnable) and Louisville (maybe not so winnable).  The scenario exists where they could once again be 5-6 heading into Thanksgiving weekend’s game with Virginia Tech.  Gulp–the only thing more consistent than quarterback inconsistency over the last decade has been the Cavaliers’ inability to beat the Hokies.

Best Case– Kurt Benkert winds up being the answer.  After taking 3 of 4 non-conference games…the Cavaliers beat Duke and Wake Forest to move into postseason contention before shocking Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.  A bowl appearance is nice…but beating the Hokies?! Priceless.

Worst Case– the Cavaliers collapse against FCS foe Richmond on opening day…and finish 2-10 with another disappointing loss to Virginia Tech.  Benkert and last year’s starting quarterback Matt Johns both transfer…guaranteeing there will be a 12th new QB in 13 years next fall.