Archives for posts with tag: Jayson Werth

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Autumn in Washington can come at you fast.  Didn’t we just have a week of 90-degree weather?  You blink and all of a sudden you’re looking for the lining in your coats you removed in April and breaking out the scarf and gloves.  Baseball’s playoffs are just as abrupt, as teams gearing up for a long postseason run all of a sudden are packing up their gear after a Game Five loss.

Ryan Zimmerman is deep into the autumn of his career, one that spans the entirety of the Washington Nationals’ stay in DC.  The teams initial first round pick in 2005 was a September call-up during the tail-end of the Nats’ inaugural season at RFK Stadium.  He shined the following season as an everyday player, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year race (to Hanley Ramirez, for those curious).  Zimmerman topped that off by hitting a walk-off home run in the first regular season game at Nationals Park the next March.

The problem was, there wasn’t a lot of talent around Zimmerman at the time. It was an era of bad baserunning and dismal defense, misspelled uniforms and exploding sausage sandwiches in the skies (true story).  But the team was building for something special, and Ryan Zimmerman was their cornerstone. “He hasn’t changed since I saw him at the University of Virginia. He’s a pro’s pro–and one of the great players that I’ve ever scouted,” General Manager Mike Rizzo said. “A guy that’s really given his all to the Washington Nationals.  Physically, mentally and in the community he’s been terrific.  He’s the face of the franchise for a reason.”

The “face of the franchise” carries with it a ton of weight on the field and in the clubhouse.  Production at the plate and making great plays in the field are tangible skills one can easily see;  being the leader Zimmerman has been for the bulk of his career is not. But his teammates know and appreciate what Zim has done and continues to do on a daily basis. “He’s just an ultimate professional. A guy that goes out and puts his all into it-even banged up whatever it might be,” Adam Eaton said. “Speaks highly of everybody. Somebody that you would follow into battle type of guy.  There’s a reason he’s been the face of the organization for as long as he has been.”

That means being the go-to quote in the clubhouse when it’s not apparent who’s had a big game; it also means being the guy who the young players look up to in the clubhouse as they try to navigate their way through the early stages of their careers.  Zimmerman has been that kind of teammate; reliever Sean Doolittle played with him in college. “When I was a freshman at Virginia and he was a junior, he was one of the top prospects in all of college baseball,” Doolittle said. “And I got to watch the way he handled that pressure in that the microscope and go about about his business every day and was an awesome mentor to me.”

Being “the guy” for so long means building friendships with teammates that may spend half a season or half a decade in DC.  And Zimmerman knows that while the 2019 Nationals are the team that finally won a playoff series, this World Series appearance also belongs to the Jayson Werths and Adam Laroches.  “It’s definitely a culmination of a lot of guys that have been here,” Zimmerman said.”We’ve had some chances and haven’t come through, but they say you learn from your failures.  All of those guys that were on those teams are part of this tonight even though they’re not here.”

Baseball can be cruelly ironic.  Just when the Nationals were beginning to be competitive, Zimmerman started dealing with a laundry list of injuries.  Shoulder issues eventually moved the Gold Glove-winner across the infield to first base.  Seasons have been hijacked due to an abdominal strain and an oblique injury.  This year Zimmerman played just 52 games (fewest since his September call-up in 2005) while dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot.  He finally returned on September first with the rest of the 40-man roster expansion.  After hitting .283 over 53 at bats in the season’s final month, Zimmerman was no guarantee to be a fixture in the lineup.  Matt Adams offered more power (20 homers) while Howie Kendrick was hitting a career-high .344.  Kendrick likely had to play first because second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera was coming off of a 21-RBI September.  The Kendrick-Cabrera combination at first and second base started the Wild Card Game.  “I played with him in 2014 here,” Cabrera said. “He was one of the best teammates, he’s a professional outside (of) and on the field. You want to do everything that is possible to do the best for the team and him.”

Autumn weather can defy explanation though;  it’s not as much of a straight line straight line between the seasons as it is an eventual progression from summer to winter.  And this October Zimmerman has turned back the hands of the clock, hitting .290 with a homer and five RBI over nine games.  His biggest hit was that broken-bat (more of a splintered or shattered bat) single in the Wild Card Game that set up Juan Soto’s go-ahead single in the eighth inning.  “What he’s doing now does not surprise me one bit.” Manager Davey Martinez said. “The biggest thing for him was his health. If you get a healthy Ryan Zimmerman, the product on the field speaks for itself.”

Somehow from the ashes of a 19-31 season this team surged and then scraped its way into the playoffs.  Somehow from 3-0 deficits in the Wild Card Game and Game Five of the NLDS the Nationals found a way to be the team still standing when the final out was secured (a fly-out to centerfield in both cases, just like the NLCS).  And somehow Ryan Zimmerman gets to enjoy being a key part of one historic run.  “Now to share a clubhouse with him again it’s been really special,” Doolittle said. “I’m really happy for him as somebody who’s been here from the beginning of this version of Washington baseball.”

How long will Zimmerman’s extended autumn last?  The 35-year old is in the final year of the contract extension signed way back in February, 2012.  There’s a club option for 2020 worth $18 million (his salary the last two years), or the team can buy out the deal for $2 million.  To say it’s extremely likely the Nationals will take the buyout route would be a major understatement.  But to also say that the veteran wants to come back and play his final days in Washington, even at a reduced rate and playing time, is also a major understatement.  This has become home for the Virginia Beach native and his family, and the only major league home he’s known. “Playing in the big leagues for this long you consider yourself lucky,” Zimmerman said. “To be able to do it with one team and one organization. Being involved in the community and have friends that I’ve met that I’ll be friends with far longer than I’ll play baseball.  It’s a pretty cool situation.”  He has at least four more games before those decisions need to be made, but the face of the franchise hopes to be safe at home here in Washington for 2020.

It’s a shame that Major League Baseball doesn’t use aggregate runs to determine series victors.  The Nationals dropped three of four games in Philadelphia and while they won 17-7 Friday night, their three losses were each by one run.  They also dropped a 1-0 game in Tampa Bay last Tuesday…making the team 8-15 in one run affairs this year.  The team’s bad showing in nailbiters magnifies bad base-running and sub-par situational hitting while making dry patches at the plate seem like deserts.  An 8-15 showing in one run games turns banged up players absences into major voids.  The Nats are 42-40 and have the feel of an 8th seed in the NBA Playoffs at this point…and while there’s plenty of baseball ahead the team’s worst month (9-16) since 2010 is looking like less of an aberration and more like the norm.

Werth Every Penny- last week Jayson Werth announced his retirement.  The 39-year old was hitting .206 over 36 games with Seattle’s Triple-A team this season, and hamstring issues put him on the road to calling it a career.  While he never hit 30 homers or drove in 90 runs and the Nats never won a playoff series in his seven years with the team, the free agent paid 126 million dollars produced big-time.  Werth brought a veteran presence and changed the clubhouse immediately while giving the team new ideas and a vision of how to handle itself.  Werth challenged his teammates and management.  He also made DC a free agent destination for the likes of Max Scherzer and Daniel Murphy.  Most importantly, the cantankerous individual was never a dull moment in postgame interviews.  Even though he didn’t return to the team in 2018, his fingerprints are all over this club.  Bye bye, beard…

Dissecting the Division- Atlanta (48-34) finally has a little breathing room after sweeping St. Louis.  The Braves own a three game lead over Philadelphia (45-37);  both are dominating one-run games this year (ATL is 13-6 while PHI is 17-7).  The Nats? A head-scratching 8-15 in one-run contests.  Meanwhile, the New York Mets and Miami are in an interesting race for the division cellar.

O’s Woes- the Birds avoided a sweep by blasting the Los Angeles Angels 8-2 Sunday.  Everything that hadn’t come together over the first three months of the season was there: Kevin Gausman tossed eight solid innings while the lineup produced four home runs.  The win now means they no longer need a .500 finish to avoid a 100-loss campaign; although they do need to go 39-40-a tall task for a team that hasn’t been one game under .500 since April 1st.  Also notable was the timing of the victory:  the Orioles’ last three wins at Camden Yards have taken place on Mother’s Day, Father’s Day and now Canada Day.  Book it for Bastille Day:  July 14th they host Texas.

Last Week’s Heroes- Trea Turner hits .375 while scoring seven runs.  Anthony Rendon scores four runs while driving in five.  Bryce Harper walks 10 times and posts an on-base percentage of .481.  Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark notch solid starts while Sean Doolittle remains sharp.

Last Week’s Humbled- Gio Gonzalez had two rough starts, allowing nine runs over six innings.  Michael A. Taylor batted 1-for-14 while Pedro Severino went 1-for-13.  Both players make their impact defensively but each needs to hit over .100 to make this work.

Game to Watch- the week begins with a bang as Boston drops by the district Monday.  Max Scherzer (10-4, 2.04 ERA) faces his former teammate Rick Porcello (9-3, 3.60).  The Red Sox are smarting after two tough losses in their series with the New York Yankees. Could the Nats catch a Sox team with their mind still in the Bronx?

Game to Miss- Sunday Tanner Roark (3-9 with a 4.10 ERA but a 6.08 ERA in June) pitches against Miami’s Elieser Hernandez (0-5, 5.05) at 1:35 p.m. in the DC heat.  How hot is Washington in July?  President Zachary Taylor died after having cherries and milk in 1850 (urban legend says there may have been arsenic in the mix).  Go to the pool and enjoy the crossword.

Do we have to do this?  I mean…the season’s over.  Winter is underway in Washington…can’t we focus on how the Capitals will get our hopes up again before melting in May?  Yes, the Nationals will not be advancing to the NLCS again.  Another Game Five loss at home.  Another offseason of head-scratching.

Series Heroes- start with Michael A Taylor who was the only regular to hit over .211.  His Game Four-sealing grand slam and three-run homer in Game Five accounted for 35% of the team’s runs during the series.  Adam Lind went 2 for 3 in a pinch-hitting role (to be expected after hitting .341 in September).  Stephen Strasburg turned in two gems, striking out 22 over 14 innings (while allowing two unearned runs).  Sean Doolittle and Matt Albers combined for 5.1 scoreless frames.  Max Scherzer had a great start in Chicago despite a bad hamstring (6.1 innings of one-hit ball over 98 pitches).

Series Humbled- the bats were flat:  Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Trea Turner and Matt Wieters each hit under .200 in the NLDS.  Gio Gonzalez had a rough start in Game Five…and Max Scherzer was one strike away from a 1-2-3 inning when an infield single began the drizzle that ended in a 4-run shower of runs.  Manager Dusty Baker’s tactics were called into question, from bringing in Sammy Solis to staying with a Jayson Werth that was hitting .155 since coming back from injury.  It was rough all around…

Bye Bye Beard- Jayson Werth’s seven year tenure seems likely to be ending…and from the moment he signed his 7 year, 126 million dollar contract there were those who said the Nats would never get true value for their money.  While Werth never reached the 30 HR or 90 RBI plateaus with the Nats and played fewer than 90 games during three of his seven seasons in DC, the fan favorite will be missed in the clubhouse.  He marched to the beat of his own drummer…and band.  Other pending free agents include bats off the bench Howie Kendrick and Adam Lind.

Opening Day 2018- if Adam Eaton returns to his April 2017-form, we can pencil him back at the leadoff spot.  And I’m going to move Eaton over to LF and put Michael A Taylor in CF.  Trea Turner goes back to hitting second while Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon form the core of the order.  That brings up the catcher’s spot in the order:  Lobaton becomes a free agent and Matt Wieters hit .196 after the All Star Game and .118 in September.  He has a player option for 2018…and in the wings the Nats have Pedro Severino (.242 with 5 HR and 29 RBI in AAA) and Raudy Read (.265 with 17 HR and 61 RBI in AA and a name that smacks of Wrestlemania IV).  Taylor looks like the #8 guy as Dusty loves to go left-right (or switch) in the order.  Outfield depth provides promise if Brian Goodwin can stay healthy and Victor Robles can make the leap.  Wilmer Difo is on his way to becoming a Swiss Army Knife after playing three infield and all three outfield positions in 2017.

Rating the Rotation- Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg return for another season while Gio Gonzalez enters his contract year and Tanner Roark comes back after not pitching in the postseason.  Last year the Nats tried to land Chris Sale to no avail… do they attempt to bring in another front-line pitcher this winter?  Or do they trot out Joe Ross/AJ Cole for another round of auditions?

Bullpen Blues- at least Sean Doolittle is coming back next year to close.  That eliminates what was the never-ending story of the first four months of the 2017 campaign.  Ryan Madson is also signed through 2018.  Matt Albers and Brandon Kintzler become free agents…and patching up that part of the pen will be key.  But I’d rather have holes in the 6th and 7th than the 8th and 9th….

Caps and Wiz!  The beauty of working in a four-team town is that the seasons collide in such a manner you often don’t have the chance to labor over the abrupt end of a playoff run.  Just like the Nats first place surge in May moves the Wizards and Capitals to the back-burner our winter friends have rejoined us with the usual high hopes (conventional wisdom says the Caps’ window is closing while the Wiz’ window is opening).  Enjoy the offseason and prepare for another 162-game marathon.

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Their lockers are both on the far side of the Nationals’ clubhouse.  Two veterans who despite dressing for games side-by-side couldn’t appear to be any more different if you tried.  Jayson Werth has that beard…and is often outlandish in his postgame interviews, especially with MASN’s Dan Kolko.  Ryan Zimmerman is clean-shaven…and answers in a much softer, low-key tone.  Both have been a part of the Nats nucleus since the first playoff run five years ago, and both thirty-somethings know their October opportunities are numbered.

Baseball may be a timeless sport, but there’s definitely a clock ticking on Jayson Werth’s tenure as a Washington National.  Believe it or not, the outfielder didn’t have a beard when he signed with the Nats in 2011-the first big free agent fish caught by the club after years of 100-loss campaigns, misspelled uniforms and sausage sandwich giveaways gone wrong.  The seven-year, 126 million dollar deal turned heads across the majors…and Werth’s presence helped turn the Nats from pretender to contender.  “I was just really in the right place at the right time and had the foresight to buy into the whole thing,” the 38-year old said, “I was lucky enough this all worked out.  It’s been a fun ride-it’s been a great ride. It’s been of the best teams in baseball since I’ve signed here.”

Werth hasn’t hit 30 homers nor driven in 90 runs, but the bearded one delivered a walk-off home run in Game Four of the NLDS against St. Louis.  Manager Dusty Baker’s move of Werth to second in the batting order in May of 2016 helped jumpstart a struggling lineup.  But this year has not been kind to the veteran…as he has played just 70 games (Werth’s lowest since 2003 when he was with Toronto) after suffering a foot injury in June.  In 22 games since his return in late August, the outfielder has hit .155 and may not be the best option for the club in the postseason (Adam Lind is hitting .341 since the end of August).  Werth’s contract runs out after this season…and with outfield options skewing young in the form of Brian Goodwin and restless in the shape of Adam Eaton, the deal that began with a bang may wind up ending with a whimper.

While Werth started his career elsewhere and might not be in DC next year, Ryan Zimmerman is one of just six players with 12+ years of major league service that have spent their entire career with one team.  Zimmerman is the classic “cradle to grave” MLB player that every city has-or tries to have.  They don’t necessarily have to be Hall of Famers (for every Craig Biggio or Barry Larkin there’s a Ron Oester or Bobby Higginson), and with free agency those players are few and far between.  Ryan Zimmerman is signed with the Nats through 2019 (there is a team option for 2020) and will likely end his career wearing the curly W.  He’s also enjoying his best season since the Nats became relevant.

There was once a time when Ryan Zimmerman was the only reason to watch the Nationals (with apologies to Nook Logan and Willy Mo Pena’s adventures in the outfield and on the basepaths).  From 2007 to 2010 the then-youthful third baseman was averaging 24 homers and 83 RBI for teams that averaged 97 losses.  Zim won the 2009 Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Awards while toiling for a 103-loss club.  If anyone deserved to enjoy the recent run of NL East titles, it’s the guy who wears #11.  But wouldn’t you know that just as the Nats began winning, Ryan Zimmerman’s time in the sun would be derailed by a series of injuries.  Shoulder issues during the 2012 campaign led to his lowest batting average in four years.  A fractured thumb and an injured hamstring in 2014 led to a career-low 61 games played and the veteran was reduced to pinch-hitting in the NLDS against San Francisco.  Last year rib and wrist issues contributed to a career-low .218 batting average.  The cruel baseball world had the Nats dropping three one-run games to the Dodgers and the best player in their history batting sixth.

That’s what makes 2017 all the more special:  Zim hit .303 (first time over .300 since 2010) with 36 home runs (first year of 30+ since 2009) and 108 RBI (most in his career since Ryan’s rookie year).  The 33-year old has been the rock in the middle of a batting order that has missed Bryce Harper for almost a third of the season.  The guy who missed an average of 70 games over the last three years wound up playing 144 (second-most on the team behind Anthony Rendon) for the NL East winners.  And he sports a lifetime .357 batting average in the postseason.  “What we’ve learned in the playoffs is that nobody can predict what happens,” Zimmerman said, “you show up and play good baseball.  And try to take advantage of every opportunity that you get, because there’s not many of them in the playoffs.  You gotta catch a couple of breaks too.”

Zimmerman and Werth batted fifth and sixth in the final regular season series against Pittsburgh.  Will we be seeing the clubhouse neighbors next to each other on the lineup card as well against the Chicago Cubs?  Enjoy October…because there’s no guarantee Ryan Zimmerman will be this good for a team this good again.  And it’s definitely a possibility this may be Jayson Werth’s final month on the South Capitol Street stage.

 

 

Pay no attention to the Nationals series loss at Wild Card contending Milwaukee over the weekend.  The Nats won the week by sweeping second place Miami out of South Capitol Street:  the series included a complete game, two major returns, the customary rain delay and an action figure giveaway.  Despite all of their injury issues, the Nationals still posted the best record in the NL at 18-11.  As rosters expand and the boxes are checked (the matter of that division title, individual milestones), the Nats prepare to face their ghosts of postseasons past.  Let’s enjoy a little September sun before October Angst drops by the district.

Dissecting the Division- the magic number is down to 12…and the Nats meet Miami three times this week.  The Marlins recent dip (1-6) drops them five games back in the Wild Card race.  The Mets (3) and Atlanta (6) are close to being knocked out of the NL East race, but at least they don’t have a single-digit tragic number like Philadelphia.  The Phillies were eliminated from the NL East race last Wednesday…and are 20 games back in the Wild Card with 26 to play.

O’s Pose a Threat- eight wins in ten games has the Orioles in contention…and the Birds battle the New York Yankees in a series with playoff implications this week.  While Aaron Judge and the Bronx bats have been somewhat quieter since the All Star Break, the Pinstripes’ pitching (5th best ERA in the bigs) is what has me concerned.  Especially with the flammable rotation the O’s offer up.

Last Week’s Heroes- Stephen Strasburg struck out eight while tossing a complete-game shutout of the Marlins.  By the way, he homered as well in that game.  Matt Wieters hit .417 while Wilmer Difo hit .300 with a team-high five runs.  Jayson Werth homered in his return to the lineup…and Trea Turner is also back to provide a spark atop the batting order.

Last Week’s Humbled- Gio Gonzalez was oh-so-close to a perfect 6-0 month…only to allow five runs in six innings Thursday.  Adam Lind hit .100 while Howie Kendrick struck out eight times in 19 at bats.

Game to Watch- Friday Max Scherzer takes to the mound against Philadelphia.  One year removed from his Cy Young campaign, the righthander has dealt with neck issues and last Saturday was hit by a line drive.  While a 20-win season is no longer in sight, a strong September most certainly can be.

Game to Miss- Sunday Stephen Strasburg pitches against Ben Lively and the Phillies.  At 1:35.  Hmm…don’t the Redskins play Philadelphia at 1pm?  Isn’t it the regular season opener?  Tough break…

 

July 31st is the non-waiver trading deadline in Major League Baseball.  While swaps can still go through, this is the big day when deals are made between contenders and pretenders.  For the sixth straight year the Nats are contenders…and the last three seasons have provided a Christmas in July for DC baseball fans.  What might be under their tree this year?

Needs- Relief, relief, relief.  The Nats lead the majors with 66 quality starts but boast the second-worst bullpen ERA in the big leagues.  Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson have been solid additions, but one can never have too many proven arms available in the late innings.  They could also use another table-setter type in the lineup:  Brian Goodwin and Wilmer Difo are hitting just over .250 with 34 walks against 104 strikeouts.  Howie Kendrick was a start…but there’s no guarantee Trea Turner will return to his June-level when he gets back and there’s no guarantee Jayson Werth will even return.  Add to the wish list a #3 or #4 starter…the longer that Stephen Strasburg is in the land of limbo.

Previous Sprees- the last three years General Manager Mike Rizzo has pulled the late-July trigger, with mixed results:

2014-– infielder Asdrubal Cabrera (more like a stocking stuffer than a gift wrapped under the tree) was brought to DC for reserve Zach Walters.  Cabrera didn’t set the world on fire, but was a decided upgrade over Danny Espinosa at second base (just one error and 20 runs + 21 RBI over 49 games; Espy had 31 runs + 27 RBI over 114 games played).

2015– closer Jonathan Papelbon was brought to South Capitol Street to shore up the bullpen.  The price tag?  Nick Pivetta (3-6 with an ERA of 5.73 this year for the Phillies).  And the team’s mental well-being. Instead, the veteran was ineffective, Drew Storen went on a downward spiral that ended when he broke his hand punching a locker, and Papelbon put his hand on the throat of NL MVP Bryce Harper in a dugout dustup.  Decidedly a bad move.

2016– new year, new closer.  This time it was Pittsburgh’s Marc Melancon…and the price tag was pitchers Felipe Rivero (5-5 with an ERA under 2 out of the pen for the Pirates over the last year) and Taylor Hearn (currently in high Class A).  Melancon delivered 17 saves in 18 chances with an ERA of 1.82 in 30 appearances and almost as important allowed the team to jettison Papelbon.  A definite win for the team.

Hall of Blame- congratulations to former Expo Tim Raines and ex-National Pudge Rodriguez on their Hall of Fame inductions.  Shame that Cooperstown’s big day occured while there were 14 MLB games in progress.  Perhaps they can make this part of All Star Week?

Dissecting the Division- the hard-charging Miami Marlins have won seven of ten,  moving within 13 games of the Nats.  For those scoring at home, the magic number is now 47.

O’s Woes- okay, so the Birds took two of three from Texas. And they put 10 runs on the board Sunday against the Rangers.  But the Orioles are 6-1 against Texas this month…and 5-13 against everyone else in July.  At 50-54 they’re on the fringe, five and a half games out of the wildcard.  But the starting pitching remains a nightmare and the dreaded west coast trip is a few weeks away.

Last Week’s Heroes- Ryan Zimmerman hit .350 with 4 HR and 9 RBI…replacing Frank Howard atop DC’s career HR list.  Wilmer Difo batted .364 with 2 homers.  Edwin Jackson pitched a gem Sunday night (striking out 6 while allowing 4 hits over 7 innings).  Max Scherzer struck out 9 while improving to 12-5 on the season.

Last Week’s Humbled- Daniel Murphy and Matt Wieters each hit .167.  Tanner Roark allowed 4 runs over 5 innings in his lone start.  The Washington Kastles lost 5 straight matches to slip out of World Team Tennis title contention.

Game to Watch- Monday Gio Gonzalez pitches against Jose Urena in Miami.  So you’ve got Gio’s return to his hometown…facing a nine-game winner.  While Gonzalez has lost four of his last five decisions, the lefthander continues to keep his ERA under three.  Have we mentioned the Marlins are within 13 games of the NL East lead?

Game to Miss- Wednesday the Nats wrap up their series against the Marlins with Stephen Strasburg–nope, he’s on the DL.  Instead, TBA takes to the mound against an 0-2 Vance Worley…proving that the dog days are officially upon us.

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What is it with the yo-yo performances of the Washington Nationals?  They’re slowly becoming the poor man’s San Francisco (forget about the three World Series titles the Giants have- last fall’s flameout against the Cubs in Game Four was even more spectacular than the Nats’ underwhelming Game Five loss to the Dodgers) with playoff appearances during even-numbered seasons…and frustrating walks in the wilderness during odd-numbered years.  The shock of 2012 and making the postseason for the first time ever was tempered by the frustration of a 2013 team that floundered…just like the 2014 club that exceeded expectations found a way to spiral downward in 2015.  The local team’s fortunes remind me of the Seinfeld episode where Elaine loses her job and winds up wearing sweatpants while George gets hired by the Yankees.  Everything evens out eventually…

With a few exceptions (the Joe Torre Yankees, the Bobby Cox Braves), teams don’t repeat because in order to win in the first place a club needs premium seasons from its best players and outlier-type seasons from the mid-range players.  Doug Fister isn’t going to win 16 games every season…and when opposing hitters adjust and things aren’t as sharp as they were during the dream season, a 5-7 nightmare with a 4.17 ERA can be a rude awakening.  It hasn’t helped that there have been whispers around the Nats clubhouse regarding their manager in both occasions where the team was defending its title, whether it was Davey Johnson being put out to pasture or Matt Williams being out of his league.  Dusty Baker’s calm center should keep the yo-yo in check somewhat…but players will still vary production-wise year to year.

That is very good news for Bryce Harper.  The 2015 MVP had a less than stellar 2016…just like his 2014 was less than ideal.  But even with all of his issues (some alleged to be injury-related), the Nats prime offensive weapon still ranked second on the team in on-base-percentage, third in runs scored and second in runs batted in.  Could this be the year he finally surpasses 100 RBI?  The yo-yo says yes.

Does this mean that Max Scherzer will likely not win 20 games this season?  Even thought the ace says he’s recovered from the hairline fracture to the knuckle of his right ring finger, back to back 20-victory campaigns are few and far between in the current era.  And Max had a better WAR (wins above replacement) season the year before when he went 14-12.  What’s more unlikely for the reigning Cy Young winner is his continued prowess at the plate:  last season Scherzer drove in 12 runs over 70 at-bats…a rate that would translate to 102 RBI over 600 AB.

Should Tanner Roark be nervous then?  After winning 15 games in 2014, the pitcher went to the bullpen the following year and showed that he was best suited as a starting pitcher.  His return to the rotation resulted in 16 wins and proved that 2014 wasn’t a fluke.  He gets another year of going against third and fourth starters in other team’s rotations…so another 15+ victory season isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Daniel Murphy fans should be wary, though.  Nobody expected the offseason acquisition to hit .347 with 25 homers and 104 RBI in 2016…and nobody should expect him to match those numbers this year.  Conventional wisdom has the second baseman hitting in the .290’s with 15 HR and 80 RBI in 2017…but the famed conventional wisdom said the same thing about Murphy last year.

What to make to Turner and Treinen?  Trea Turner set the base paths on fire last season from the leadoff spot and returns to lead off this season…how much of his 2016 success (.342 with 33 steals and 53 runs scored over 73 games) can be attributed to beginners luck?  Now that pitchers have an actual scouting report on the kid one feels that while he’ll be productive it won’t be at the rate Turner was in 2016.  Blake Treinen had a breakthrough season last summer in the bullpen…but in a setup role.  Posting an ERA of 2.28 over 73 games as a set-up man is one thing…but how will the 28-year old handle the responsibility and expectations of being the team’s closer?

Sometimes the string wears out- Ryan Zimmerman’s coming off his least productive season and hasn’t driven in even 80 runs since 2012.  The “new normal” for the oft-injured 32-year old may be .250 with 15 homers and 55 RBI…not what you look for from a power position like first base.  Jayson Werth enjoyed a resurgence after being moved to the #2 spot in the batting order last spring…but the 37-year old enters the final year of his contract and hasn’t had consecutive 20-homer seasons since 2010-11.  Like Zim, Werth plays a position where production is paramount.  How one veteran bounces back and another prevents a market correction could go long way towards if the Nats will continue their even-odd year yo-yo.  That…and of course the Mets who were ravaged by injuries last year.  One expects a bounce-back from the other NL East team to make the playoffs last year.